2025 Topps Holiday Basketball Cards Set PACK ODDS
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đ Release Date & Format Facts
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Release date: October 30, 2025. Mark your calendar. âYes, Santa, I want new basketball cards.â Chasing Majors+2Topps+2
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Formats visible so far:
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Mega BOX (10 packs, 10 cards per pack) in the hobby channel. Chasing Majors+1
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Countdown Calendar version: 24 packs per box, 4 cards per pack. Topps+1
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Various retail/advent formats likely lurking (for the âholidayâ theme, of course).
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The base set: 200-card base checklist featuring rookies + veteran stars, all dressed in holiday flair. Topps+1
So yeahâthis isnât just your everyday release. Itâs Topps saying: âWeâll jingle-bell rock the court and your wallet.â
⨠Whatâs in the Box & What to Expect
Hereâs what you can expect when you crack one of these boxes (substitute âpop the wrapâ if you prefer your cards buttered):
From the checklist guide:
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Mega Box: Contains 6 Base Holiday Glitter parallels, 1 Base Holiday Blue Metallic Glitter, 1 Base Holiday Light Blue & White Glitter, 1 Base Variation SSP or Base Holiday Backs Variation SSP, and 1 Oversized Die-Cut Ornament card. Chasing Majors
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The Countdown Calendar: Has 24 Holiday Plaid Base Parallels, 20 âMaking the Nice Listâ Inserts, and 4 Evergreen Inserts per box. Topps
In short: Expect parallels galore, a fun holiday design twist, and a few âshape cardsâ (die-cut ornaments!) which are always nice for display.

đ Pack Odds â The Good Stuff (and the âoh crapâ stuff)
Okay, this is where the magic and the budget shocker show up. According to Chasing Majors, here are some of the key odds (Mega Box format) for 2025-26 Holiday: Chasing Majors
Parallels â non-serial and serial
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Glitter Holiday (non-serial): 1:2 packs.
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Blue Metallic Glitter Holiday: 1:10.
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Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday: 1:10.
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Stocking Stuffer Metallic Candy Cane / Holly / Ornament / Santa Bag / Stocking: Roughly 1:3,001 to 1:3,002 packs. Yikes.
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Purple Glitter Holiday (/99): 1:228 packs.
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Orange Glitter Holiday (serial TBD): ~1:901 packs for Box Version 1.
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Red Metallic Holiday (/10): ~1:2,254 packs.
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Green Glitter Holiday (/5): ~1:4,507 packs.
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Golden Glitter Holiday (1/1): ~1:22,717 packs.
Autographs & Relics
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Base Holiday Player Autograph: ~1:379 packs (Mega Box 1) or ~1:326 packs (Mega Box 2).
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Autograph Parallels: Red Glitter Holiday (/10): ~1:4,354 packs. Green Glitter Holiday (/5): ~1:8,708 packs. Golden Glitter Holiday (1/1): ~1:43,538 packs.
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Oversized Die-Cut Ornament: ~1:10 packs. (So youâre likely to see one of these in a box fairly reliably.)
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Frostbite Finishers: ~1:200 packs.
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Hidden Elf: ~1:200 packs.
Quick math for your wallet: If you buy a single box of 10 packs (say ~$50â$60 for Mega)âyou have about a 1 in 2 shot for a Glitter parallel, ~1 in 10 for the Blue Metallic, etc. But hitting the crazy rarities? Youâre playing long odds.
đ Chase Cards â What We Want
What are we chasing like a parent chasing the last slice of pumpkin-pie? Hereâs the list of âooh-la-laâ cards that make this release pop.
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Oversized Die-Cut Ornament cards â Shape cards shaped like ornaments. Fun for display. ~1:10 odds.
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Stocking Stuffer Metallic parallels â Candy Cane, Holly, Ornament, Santa Bag, Stocking⌠super low print runs (~1:3000 odds for many) â these are the wild âwowâ cards.
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Base Variation SSP / Backs Variation SSP â Special short prints and back variations for base set players. ~1:23 odds.
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Signature Autographs (Base Holiday Player Auto) â Major chase: ~1:379 odds base auto, with rarer parallels up the ladder.
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Player Relics â Holiday shaped relics and player relics with seasonal motifs.
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Parallels /5, /10, 1/1 â As above: Green /5, Red /10, Golden /1/1. If you like âholy-crap rareâ, this is it.
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Insert Series:
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Frostbite Finishers (~1:200)
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Hidden Elf (~1:200)
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Making the Nice List (~1:2 in Advent Calendar)
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Evergreen Inserts (special design)
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Star Rookies & Vets â Base set includes top rookies (for 2025-26) and veteran names with holiday design. That means early cards for hot talent will be part of the base and chase.
đ Collector Humor Angle (because you asked)
Picture this: Youâre wearing your âcard-dadâ socks, coffee in hand (half spilled), and you unwrap the first pack. Youâre hoping for a rookie auto, but you get a Glitter Holiday parallel of⌠a 15-year-veteran whose hairline is receding like mine. You sigh. But you love it anyway because the cardâs got tinsel foil and a die-cut ornament version of his jersey.
Then you remember: âI paid for this holiday set because I want festive design. Not just rookies. Not just stars. I want holiday cheer on cardboard.â
Youâre ripping under the tree. On pack three: Boom! Oversized die-cut ornament. You leap out of your hobby chair like you scored at half-time. For a moment, you forget the wife said âjust one boxâ and your submission fee for the grading company is waiting.
Odds for the crazy rarities? Letâs just say you have better odds of finding a tiny dog in your underwear drawer than pulling a /5 autograph. But youâre okay with that; youâre in it for the thrill and the display.
đŻ Why This Could Be a Smart Pick
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Seasonal theme + evergreen appeal: Holiday cards stand out and donât look dated right in March.
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Display factor: Ornament shapes, glitter, design tweaks = good for show cases and social media.
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Rookies + stars included: So youâre not just chasing design; youâre chasing value potential.
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Variants & parallels give multiple tiers of budget vs. âgo bigâ options.
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Early odds are publishedâso you know what youâre playing for.
đ§ž Final Notes for Your Site or Video
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Call out release date: Oct 30, 2025.
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Mention âMega Boxâ format (10 packs Ă 10 cards) and Countdown Calendar variant.
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Use key pack odds: 1:2 for base Glitter parallel; 1:10 for Blue Metallic; ~1:22,700 for the 1/1 Golden Glitter.
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Highlight chase cards: Oversized Die-Cut Ornaments, Player Autographs, Relics, Stocking Stuffer Metallic parallels.
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Use humor: âRipping cards while wearing ugly holiday sweater and trying not to knock over the tree.â
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Add a caution: Long odds for the big hits; budget accordingly.
Alright, card-famâgrab your holiday sweater, clear a spot on your display shelf, and maybe invest in some extra sleeves (because glitter foil + kids + pets = potential hobby hazard). This release is all set to bring the holiday vibes to the hardwoodâand your collection.