Which comes first, the chicken or the egg, player hype or player production? In this hobby world of card comps, hype cycles, drafts, media coverage, elevated card production runs, eBay auctions and so much more, it's hard to find reliable information to make informative buying decisions. You know what is the guaranteed way to get reliable information on new players, old players and everyone in between no matter if they're 18 or 88? Stats and accolades. Yes, bat flips, gold chains, dunks, swag and a social media presence is a bonus, but it doesn't make good players great (thought it could make a great player epic).
Stats and accolades reign supreme and will always be the measuring stick whether the baseball prospect is 18 and just got called up, the grizzled NFL QB just won a Super Bowl or the second year NBA phenom just went to his first All-Star game (insert shameless Paolo Banchero plug here).
But for most of us, looking at stats is a chore, it's hard to decipher what's meaningful, what's a trend and what's a flash in the pan. And before you know it, everyone's already talking about the player you had your eyes on first, and the buying window is closed. Once eBay comps trend up, when it's the player everyone is asking for at a show, when you hear YouTuber's bring up their name on a hot list, you missed the time to buy low. It's a delicate balance between hype and production, between buying early and overpaying.
There's always ebbs and flows on All-Timers like Brady, LeBron, Griffey and Mahomes, those buying windows are more measured by market trends and seasonal peaks, but how about getting in early on players like Shai Gilgous-Alexander, Justin Jefferson, Junior Caminero or Gunner Henderson? Look no farther my friends than fantasy sports!
I made the leap into fantasy sports as a kid in 2001 using Yahoo! Sports as my platform of choice, and I haven't looked back. Basketball was the only sport I played the first couple years, but quickly incorporated baseball and football shortly after, and now play multiple teams of all three major US sports every season. It's a lot of time spent, I figured I spend about 30 minutes daily on fantasy sports, sometimes it's 5 minutes getting my starting pitchers in, but sometimes I'm relaxing after work, having a nice beverage, hours in scouring waiver wires, proposing trades, data hunting and looking at previous games stats.
There's always other tabs open searching Basketball Reference, StatCast and even Wikipedia (a player's background is meaningful, just like your own), taking in the data and news to make informed decisions. After I go through the fantasy teams making sure it's all in tip-top form, I'm on eBay taking all that data to see what's going on in hobby-land. Where's Michael Arroyo at as he's on a heater, or have comps changed after Jeremy Sochan and Kelnic's role-change?
There's a big difference between baseball, basketball and football in-season hobby buying windows.  In football, it seems like one game can spike prices, two's is a trend, and three is the new normal, but three games are over a span of three weeks! If you're not in the loop every game, you missed the boat. In basketball, it seems to take at least a handful of games to spike prices, let's call it a week's worth. If a player has two weeks of good games, that's a trend, and a month is the new normal.  Baseball takes way longer for stats to actualize into hobby prices, it's the nature of the game. You need to realize these guys are playing almost every day, it's a grind for everyone, but it's also the easiest to see trends. So when they play six games a week, or 18 games in three weeks, it's easier to see patterns and playing fantasy keeps you locked in daily.
There's a lot to dive into, and hopefully we'll get back to details and comparisons another day, but basically no matter what fantasy sport you're playing, you have an edge on everyone not following daily sports (and that's most in the hobby who don't have a job in it). Be it casual leagues with your friends, competitive online leagues, daily paid fantasy leagues, or multi-year dynasty leagues, there's something for everyone. My favorite is free, casual leagues due to not having so much pressure and being able to enjoy the ride. Taking risks in these leagues have little actual consequences (there's no money involved, only pride), so I can learn from my mistakes, and implement new data into card buying and collecting.
A good example is Cam Thomas during February of 2023. To begin the season, Durant and Kyrie are leading the team, Cam is a second year player coming off the bench for around 20 minutes a game to start the year. There's flashes that he can play, such as scoring 17,21 and 19 over three games in November, but that 3-game scoring streak followed by 12 games of DNP's, zero point games or single digit point games... booooo! Then, in December, out of nowhere, after his 12-game "bad" streak where the previous game after he didn't even suit up, he drops 33 off the bench in a game without Durant and Kyrie! The first week of February Durant and Kyrie were traded, launching Cam into a starting role, with the team on his back. You would never guess what happens next, 44 points, 47 points, 43 points... 3 games over 4 days! If you're playing fantasy, this guy pops up all over the place after that first game, you look on eBay, see his cards are low, and buy a couple rookies for $20.  By the time the cards arrive at your house, you're up over %300 and are living large. If you sold during that couple week spike you did great. Yes, his playing time sucked after that, the Nets wanted to tank to end the year, but in the last game of the year he scored 46. If you held through the offseason, you're still up, people are still stoked, and he's a 22 year old kid with skills for days and averaging 21.5ppg this season. That type of instant information is apparent if you're playing daily fantasy sports, but by the time the "news cycle" gets on it and the masses realize what's happening, the gains are gone.
Another example is Xavier Isaac, a baseball prospect drafted in the late 1st round by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2022, where most were surprised by the pick... he was called a 'reach'. I follow a bit of baseball prospect news, and early last year he was in the same group of 3,000 (give or take 5-10) other players labeled 'young power hitters with potential but we have no idea'.
Side tangent, I love watching YouTube videos of players drafted in the wrong spots, be it Giannis, Jokic & Curry drafted way late, or Mike Piazza (63.7 WAR) drafted 1,390th overall and John Smoltz (79.5 WAR) 574th overall. Anyways, Isaac went to Rookie Ball in 2022 and didn't impress. He started 2023 in Single-A, not doing anything much, but turned it on in June, was red hot in July, and was on fire (He's On Fire NBA JAM-style) in September when he got called up to High A. He mashed the ball with 20 hits, 6 homers, 16 RBI and 1.389OPS in 12 games. Even if you bought in the middle of that bender in July/September, that meant you got in early as it takes so long for word to get out from the baseball stat-heads to the general hobby community.
The only reason I started to notice him was because I was scouting daily for a long-term fantasy Dynasty league, so I saw his trend in the summer and bought 7 different numbered colored Bowman 1st's. My thinking was that the Rays tend to be the best scouts in baseball, he has the pedigree, prices are low, he's showing he can smash at his level, I like the build, and he has room to grow... He's now around #60 in the top 100 prospects, and many have him as the top first base prospect. I sold four of my Xavier Isaac's this month, making over %200 profit (after fees and ship), paying for the costs of the three I'm still holding, best buy of last year and it's all due to fantasy sports!
There's obviously risks, and some missteps along the way, but I never hit above my weight class and there's been positive examples like that over the years.
The main point is to have fun, follow players, stats and your favorite teams while trusting your gut and connecting with others in the community! And if you're into 'gossip' you also get insider knowledge on what others are doing, like who are other teams picking up? Who got traded, dropped, or made the hot list? Who are the analysts writing articles about and what do the player notes say?
Yes, that could get mistaken for an ESPN player profile or GQ article, but it's just fantasy sports! By playing free fantasy sports, there's little risk, and you learn not only from your failures and successes, but by other teams in your league by getting back to the basics, stats. For me, the best part is you're connected with others in part of a community, while being active in the hobby we all love. It's a win-win!
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