From a card collector's perspective, I think the sustainability of today's massive sports card prices depends heavily on what part of the market we're talking about. There is a major difference between an iconic, historically significant card and a modern card whose value is being driven primarily by scarcity and hype.

At the very top, we're seeing numbers that would have been almost unimaginable even ten years ago. The 2007-08 Exquisite Michael Jordan/Kobe Bryant Dual Logoman sold for $12.932 million in 2025, setting a sports-card record. Meanwhile, cards such as the T206 Honus Wagner and 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle continue producing seven-figure sales.

Why I think some of these prices ARE sustainable

The biggest reason is that the best cards have become more than sports cards.

A 1952 Topps Mantle, T206 Wagner or elite Michael Jordan card is increasingly treated like a piece of sports history or collectible art. There are wealthy collectors who aren't trying to flip these cards in six months. They want to own one of the best sports collectibles in existence.

Scarcity also matters.

There aren't going to be any more T206 Wagners printed. There aren't going to be more 1952 Mantles manufactured. And there is only one Jordan/Kobe Dual Logoman.

Meanwhile, the number of wealthy people who potentially want those cards can increase.

That supply-demand equation is extremely powerful.

We're also seeing evidence that demand for iconic players remains remarkably deep. Michael Jordan generated more than $70 million in single-card sales on eBay alone during 2025, while Mickey Mantle generated more than $22 million.

The hobby has also become global. Cards are increasingly competing with watches, art, cars, comics, game-worn memorabilia and other alternative collectibles for wealthy buyers' money.

That gives the very best cards a much larger potential buyer pool than they had 20 or 30 years ago.

But there are reasons to be cautious

The biggest concern I have is that scarcity alone doesn't necessarily equal importance.

This is particularly relevant with modern cards.

A manufacturer can make a:

1/1 Superfractor
1/1 Logoman
1/1 Black
1/1 Platinum
1/1 Printing Plate
1/1 Patch Auto
1/1 insert parallel

Suddenly we have dozens or even hundreds of technically unique cards of the same player.

That's very different from something like a T206 Wagner, where the scarcity wasn't manufactured specifically to create a premium collectible.

Modern cards also have tremendous player-performance risk.

A vintage Mantle isn't tearing his ACL.

Michael Jordan isn't going to have a bad season.

Tom Brady isn't suddenly going to fail to become one of the greatest quarterbacks ever.

Their stories have already been written.

Paying six figures for a 22-year-old athlete is an entirely different proposition. You're pricing in a career that hasn't happened yet.

There's also a liquidity issue at the top

A $5 million card isn't necessarily "worth $5 million" in the same way $5 million sitting in a bank account is worth $5 million.

It means somebody was willing to pay $5 million at that particular moment.

With extremely rare cards, sometimes only two or three collectors determine the market.

If three billionaires want the same card, the price can become extraordinary.

If two of them disappear the next time it sells, the result could look dramatically different.

We actually saw some evidence of this following the pandemic boom. Certain high-end cards sold below their 2021-22 peaks even while the overall market for iconic cards remained strong. For example, a 1951 Bowman Mantle SGC 9 that sold for $690,000 in 2021 brought $390,400 in 2025.

My collector view

I don't think we're necessarily in a bubble where everything expensive is destined to crash.

I think we're seeing a separation.

The absolute best cards are becoming trophy assets.

Mantle. Wagner. Ruth. Jordan. Brady. LeBron. Kobe. Jackie Robinson. Gretzky.

The cards that combine the right player, historical significance, genuine scarcity and hobby recognition could continue becoming extraordinarily valuable.

Where I become much more skeptical is when a card's entire value proposition is essentially:

"It's rare."

There is a huge difference between rare and important.

If I'm putting serious money into a card for the next 20 years, I want both.

And ironically, the enormous prices being paid for established sports-card grails may eventually help other parts of the collectible market. When a collector realizes the sports card he considers a true grail now costs $250,000 or $1 million, he may start asking what culturally significant cards he can own for $5,000, $10,000 or $25,000.

That's where vintage non-sports, Pokémon and other historically important cards become increasingly interesting.

The next phase of the hobby may not simply be about finding the rarest card.

It may be about figuring out which cards deserve to be considered important.

Posted in Videos and tagged , , , , , , , , ,